Wednesday, April 19, 2006
Polling does not always work, especially in N.O.
BAYOU BUZZ
By Christopher Tidmore
(excerpt)
This trend has intensified in recent days as Landrieu has passed Nagin in the contest to win endorsements from prominent African-American politicians. The real anxiety, though, of both Lt. Governor and the former Audubon Institute head, according to insiders who spoke to Bayoubuzz.com on the promise of anonymity, rests in the continuance of wavering white voters.
Forman has effectively garnered white liberals. Attorney Tony Gelderman, former Chief of Staff to Senator Mary Landrieu, and other Democratic activists who have supported the Landrieu family in past years pledged their backing of the Audubon CEO weeks ago.
The stratagem emerges from the continued success that the two Republican candidates Couhig and Wilson, have had in holding their conservative bases. Forman’s polls put Couhig at 6% and Wilson at 3%, yet still in fourth and fifth places. Ed Renwick’s surveys agree on the placements, but put Wilson at 11% and Couhig statistically tied at 7%. (There is a 4% margin of
error.)
With both candidates arguably strong with conservative Lakeview voters, still displaced, but living close to Orleans in communities from Metairie to Baton Rouge, and likely to vote in their usual chronic numbers on Saturday, neither Couhig or Wilson has lessened the intensity of each’s campaigning--or his or her attacks on Forman.
With reduced African-American turnout, Lakeviewites chronic voting nature, returning home to cast their ballots, will claim them a larger percentage of the electorate, "launching Peggy into a runoff."
Wilson herself endorses the strategy. "I represented Lakeview on the council for 8 years…Those voters know me and know I have fought for them."
The displaced condition of Lakeviewites is only one indication that polling may not reflect election day turnout. Of course, polling does not always work, even if all the voters are home.
