Friday, October 20, 2006
LOUISIANA POLITICAL NEWS SERVICE
With the "Super Bowl" of Louisiana politics (the election for Governor) exactly one year away, the Governor seems to still be suffering from her post-Katrina performance.
The latest SURVEY USA MEDIA POLL results show Blanco's job performance one percentage point lower than her numbers immediately following the hurricane. Black voters and self-discribed “liberals” were the only categories where her job approval numbers were higher than her disapproval ratings.
Overall, 57% disapprove while 41% approve. That's the good news for Blanco!
The latest poll released with real live opponents shows the Governor in even worse shape with only 29% of the actual vote, behind Congressman Bobby Jindal at 60%.
A story on the DEAD PELICAN website today shows Blanco badly trails Jindal in every region of the state:
“Jindal leads Blanco by a whopping 61% - 27% in Blanco’s home base of Acadiana. He is ahead by an even larger margin in the Florida Parishes, 73% - 22%. Blanco hopes to establish a base in North Louisiana for the 2007 election, but trails Jindal by 49% - 35% in the region. New Orleans area voters favor the Republican congressman 49% - 39%.
Jindal’s complete domination of the political landscape in Louisiana is not limited to winning in each region. He leads among Republicans by a margin of 86% - 6% and among Independents 62% - 15%. Even among members of Blanco’s own Democratic Party, Jindal receives one-third of the vote, trailing Blanco 60% - 29%.
With state Democratic Party officials firmly behind Blanco and the state Republican Party already publicly campaigning for Jindal, a rematch of the bruising 2003 election seems inevitable. Both campaigns are expected to spend more than ten million dollars in the primary.
Jindal’s domination of public opinion polls is not confined to those that propose a one-on-one rematch with Blanco. In a survey conducted earlier this year that included Jindal, Blanco, PSC Member Foster Campbell (D), former U.S. Senator John Breaux (D) and U.S. Senator David Vitter (R), Jindal finished first at 39%, well ahead of the pack.”
LPNS COMMENTARY continued: One year out it appears Blanco has serious problems to overcome for re-election. Throughout her political career she has been underestimated and always exceeded expectations. With billions of dollars in federal money to dole out in political jobs, contracts and quote public service announcements baring her name (in addition to her healthy campaign war chest) she is still the most viable Democrat.
The downside for her is, it has been over a year and she has not been able to shake her post-Katrina image as a not-so-bright, over emotional, ineffective and indecisive administrator.
In stark contrast Jindal comes across as an intelligent, articulate, dynamic leader with lots of new ideas.
The other major factor in play is the drastic change in the demographics of our state. The storm has blown away a great deal of Blanco’s New Orleans Democratic base.
Traditionally financial contributors and opinion leaders throughout Louisiana begin handicapping the Governor race at this stage in the political cycle.
The “Jindal Train” appears to be pulling out of station and we predict the cars will be chocked full.